Ceasefire Boosts Crypto: Is This Your Last Chance to Buy BTC and Altcoins?

Introduction

In the wake of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, global markets rallied, and crypto surged even harder. Bitcoin is now trading above both the 50 EMA and 50 SMA, signaling bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the total crypto market cap sits at the bottom of a rising wedge channel, hovering around $3.2 trillion, closer to a long-awaited breakout. With the 5‑year trendline intact and USDT dominance tipping lower, the stars are aligning for a revived push toward a new all-time high. In this post, you’ll discover:

• Why macro factors and technicals support a bullish outlook
• How BTC’s 50 EMA/SMA setup favors upside
• Altcoin mechanics and the rising wedge story
• Three key drivers: global liquidity, Bitcoin technicals, and USDT dominance
• Top strategies to prepare before the next leg up

1. BTC Above 50 EMA and 50 SMA—Why It Matters

• What the 50 EMA/SMA show: Short‑term and medium‑term trend gauges
• Current status: BTC price holds firmly above these moving averages—classic bullish signal
• Example: Every historical close above both averages led to subsequent rallies.

2. Total Crypto Market Cap at Bottom of Rising Wedge

• Chart anatomy: Total market cap edged along the bottom trend line ($~3T) of a rising wedge
• Support strength: Alongside a 5‑year trendline—dual bullish confluence
• Likely move: Edge up toward wedge apex (~$4.3T Feb), then test upper resistance near $10.2T

3. Three Pillars Driving the Next Uptrend

3.1 BTC Staying Above 50 EMA

Reinforces bullish structure. Every dip toward EMA has bounced back since late 2023.

3.2 Global Liquidity Makes Higher Highs

Central bank easing, inflows into crypto ETFs—big money is still pouring in

When USDT share drops, capital rotates into risk assets like BTC and Alts.

4. Resistance Ahead: $4.326T & $10.21T Market Cap Zones

• First target: Feb 2025 resistance at ~$4.326T
• Breakout scenario: A breach sends total cap to ~$10.21T—major milestone
• Caution zone: Expect a full retrace from the upper wedge boundary

5. Altcoin Market Cap Poised for Turn

• Altcoins form their rising wedge—now at ~$821B
• Moving toward Feb resistance at ~$1.74T (2.618 fib) is plausible before rejection

6. USDT Dominance & Bitcoin Dominance: Contrarians Pay Attention

• USDT.D nearing support—likely to fall tradingview.com+1tradingview.com+1
• BTC.D cycle high (~66%) suggests alt season soon after a pullback tradingview.com+3in.tradingview.com+3ainvest.com+3
• When BTC.D drops, investors rotate into alts—fueling outsized returns

7. Global Macro & ETF Inflows Supporting Crypto

• Crypto pioneer Circle IPO rally shows renewed investor appetite in tradingview.com and barrons.com
• Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals + ETF flows drive institutional adoption
• Expect liquidity tailwinds to persist as global rates stabilize

8. Technical Setup: Rising Wedge Breakout Pathways

1. Bounce at wedge bottom → move to Feb resistance
2. Break upward → test upper wedge trendline (~$10T)
3. Watch for volume surge to validate breakout

9. Risk Scenarios & Red Flags

• Rejection at $4.326T could retrace to the wedge base
• Global events—regulatory or geopolitical—can shift momentum
• USDT dominance spike could instigate short-term pullbacks

10. Actionable Strategies & Tips

• Entry: Layer into BTC & Alts near wedge bottom (~$3.0T total cap)
• Take‑profit zones: Partial exits around $4.3T and $10T caps
• Stop‑losses: Just below the trendline to protect from breakdowns
• Position sizing: Risk 1–2% per trade; rebalance after resistance tests

FAQ

Q1: Why does the USDT dominance dropping help crypto?
A: It indicates money is exiting stablecoins and entering risk assets like BTC/Alts

Q2: What confirms the rising wedge breakout?
A: A weekly close above the upper trendline on significant volume.

Q3: How high can the total market cap go this cycle?
A: Best-case rally to ~$10T; mid-target roughly $4.3T.

Q4: When will an altcoin season start?
A: After Bitcoin dominance peaks (~66%), and begins to decline.

Q5: Should I hold USDT now?
A: Expect USDT.D to decline, so reduce stablecoin exposure gradually.

Q6: What external factors can derail this thesis?
A: Regulatory crackdowns, global liquidity contraction, or major global events.

Conclusion & Call to Action

We stand at a pivotal moment in crypto—after the ceasefire, Bitcoin holds above key moving averages, USDT.D drops, and the total market cap is primed for a breakout. With technicals, macro, and capital flows aligning, a move toward new highs is highly probable.

📈 Now is your time to act: Consider buying BTC and key altcoins while risk/reward favors upside. Layer entries, manage stops, and follow volume signals. The next few weeks could rewrite highs—and you don’t want to be left behind.

Next Steps:

• Monitor total cap, BTC & alt wedge structures closely
• Follow USDT/BTC dominance trends
• Keep informed on ETF flows and macro shifts